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DEMAND VALIDATION

How to validate demand before building a product

What counts as evidence and what is merely polite interest.

The short answer. Choose a specific buyer, formulate an offer and ask for an action that costs them something. Decide beforehand what result justifies continuing, changing or stopping the hypothesis.

Why interest is not demand

“Great idea” says almost nothing about a future purchase. Someone may be encouraging you, imagining ideal circumstances or have no budget authority. Past behaviour and real commitments are more useful: what they have tried, how much time they lose and what they pay for now.

To apply this approach to your business, you can review the offer with me or try a practical workshop: Workshop: design a demand test.

1. Narrow the buying situation

“Small business” is too broad for a first test. Describe the person, their role, situation and current alternative. Who notices the problem? Who selects the solution? Who approves payment? In B2B, these are often different people.

2. Write down the risky hypothesis

A working hypothesis connects audience, problem and action: “The manager of a small service team will make time for a paid pilot if we reduce manual request processing.” This is a teaching example, not a validated market fact.

3. Choose the smallest useful test

One project may need a conversation with a demo; another may need a landing page, manually delivered service or paid pilot. Test the main risk. If trust and price are uncertain, ad clicks alone will not answer the question.

4. Define the decision rule before the test

Write down whom you invite, what you offer, your time and money limits and what you will do after the result. There is no universal “correct conversion rate”: it depends on price, channel, audience selection and sales cycle. Do not adjust the criterion to fit a result you like.

5. Separate observation from conclusion

Observation: someone agreed to a second conversation with the budget owner. Interpretation: the problem matters enough to continue. This is not yet a purchase. Record an alternative explanation and a next step that reduces uncertainty.

When a test proves nothing

No sales may indicate a weak offer, the wrong audience, lack of trust or an inaccessible channel. First check whether you reached the right people and whether they understood the offer. A small sample guides the next experiment; it does not estimate market size.

What to prepare this week

Practice with feedback: the “Design a demand test” workshop. If the cause of weak demand is unclear, start with product diagnostics.

Discuss your challenge